Crypto market insights

💭  6/28/2023 Thoughts. For several weeks in a row, we have been talking about the fact that cryptocurrency trading volumes continue to decline. At the same time, BTC has grown significantly over the past 2 weeks, but there is no FOMO, ordinary investors are in no hurry to buy, they are waiting for lower prices. Will they let you buy altcoins cheaper if the dominance of bitcoin is already at high values?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak today. At the moment, market expectations for the key rate of the US Federal Reserve are as follows:

  • July 26, 2023: 0.25% increase to 5.25-5.50%.
  • September 20: Pause.
  • November 1: Pause.
  • December 13: Pause.
  • January 31, 2024: 0.25% decrease to 5.00-5.25%.
  • By December 2024: reduced to 4.00%.

Should we expect an increase in the key rate in the US in July? The question is debatable, because according to the "Truflation" portal, inflation has already decreased significantly. At the same time, unemployment figures have stabilized.

Inflation in US

💭  6/17/2023 Thoughts. Trading volumes in the cryptocurrency market in the 2nd quarter showed the weakest dynamics over the past year. Pay special attention to the fact that the SEC set about regulating the cryptocurrency market precisely at a time when most altcoins are in a drawdown of 85 - 98 percent. Usually, during this period, large capitals accumulate assets while retail investors are scared.

Trading volumes in the cryptocurrency market Q2

💭  6/11/2023 Thoughts. The US Securities Commission kicks out outsiders, including crypto exchanges. There will be another form of regulation of the crypto market + tax levies, in which both US parties and President Joe Biden are interested. Plans for the taxation of cryptocurrencies in the United States are prescribed for 10 years in advance. How to raise money with 0 trading volumes on American platforms?

Many crypto funds have started selling off their altcoins, which fall under the value of a security. Against this background, private investors and traders, in fear, began to sell their coins, hoping to buy them back cheaper. Will they let you buy it cheaper?

💭  6/05/2023 Thoughts. According to The Block, bitcoin's volatility coefficient is 32%, while Meta and Amazon have 44% and 34%, respectively. This is due to a general drop in activity in the crypto market, as in May, trading volumes on centralized exchanges fell to the lowest level since November 2020. It seems that the saying "Sell in May and go away" was taken too literally by investors.

Trading Volume on Crypto Exchanges Dropped to Lows

Despite the low trading volumes, news continues to appear:

  • OKX has introduced a new standard — BRC-30.
  • President Joe Biden signed a law on raising the US debt ceiling, now the default has already been officially canceled. Accordingly, the 30% mining tax is canceled.
  • Hong Kong's permission to trade cryptocurrencies did not affect the value of BTC in any way, it was trading around $27,000 all last week.

💭  5/27/2023 Thoughts. Trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges have significantly decreased over the past few weeks. Investors are currently contemplating as, according to many people, altcoin prices are not at their lowest values. Therefore, many are now selling their assets in hopes of buying them 50% cheaper.

There are 2 factors that could contribute to future declines in the cryptocurrency market:

  • The anticipation of imminent cryptocurrency market regulation.
  • The announcement of a U.S. default.

But will altcoins be available for purchase at lower prices? There is a feeling that major players are currently accumulating positions in many fundamental altcoins while others are fearful. Deep declines in altcoins make it difficult for them to establish positions since there is a lack of liquidity at the bottom, making it impossible to buy large volumes. Large players likely understand that the risks of cryptocurrency market regulation are already factored into the current prices of altcoins.

For example, take the blockchain coin Cosmos (Atom). It seems that many are accumulating it in the range of $8 to $12, which prevents the price from collapsing significantly. The question remains whether prices will reach the levels they were four years ago. The situation is similar for other strong altcoins.

Somebody accumulate the atom

💭 5/21/2023 Thoughts on altcoins.

What to pay attention to right now:

  1. Regulation of the cryptocurrency market is soon to come. Currently, regulators closely monitor all project movements, and any attempt to raise additional capital will inevitably attract the attention of the SEC.
  2. The average purchase price of altcoins. I believe that fundamental altcoins have been accumulating over the 1 year. In other words, they are being acquired at their current prices by major players. Regardless of negative events occurring in the market, the acquisition prices for major players generally remain around the same as they are now. This means that despite our search for the best entry point, we won't be able to accurately determine the absolute lowest point and purchase significant volumes at those rock-bottom prices. I will never believe that it's possible to acquire a substantial amount of cryptocurrency at the exact bottom. This is especially challenging for major players because accumulating a large position requires liquidity, which in turn requires time and resources.

For successful cryptocurrency investors, it is important to:

  • Buy coins from fundamental projects that major players are acquiring and show interest in manipulation.
  • Acquire them at prices lower than the average purchase price for the majority of participants (95%). Conduct analysis and focus on prices that are similar to those at which major players acquire them.

💭 5/14/2023Thoughts. Last week, Bitcoin temporarily dropped below the $26,000 mark due to the spread of fake news about the alleged withdrawal of assets from US government Bitcoin wallets for subsequent sale. However, this information was soon debunked. Markets continue to face pressure due to the situation with the US national debt, as Republicans seek to impose their conditions, while Democrats oppose this. A meeting on the US national debt, to be attended by Joe Biden, is scheduled for May 21.

Positive news comes in the form of data showing a decrease in inflation in the US.

The cryptocurrency market remains stable according to the altcoin index, which could lead to a swift shift of liquidity from Bitcoin to altcoins. If market capitalization does not decrease, there is a possibility of growth in alternative cryptocurrencies.

altcoin season